It is better to remain optimistic always. People had almost written off India’s economic growth trajectory last year when there was a negative growth rate of – 23.9%. This year India has managed to show a growth of 20 % year on year, of course on a low basis. IMF says we will have 9.5 % growth rate in 2021- 2022 and this is corroborated by Reserve bank of India. Even the various industry bodies are seeing the green shoots and have estimated that the growth to be range bound and may be India will have the tag of fastest growing nation in the world. The ground response is positive.
India’s GST collection remains up beat, the core sector is growing. The Index of industrial production figure is positive. India’s foreign exchange reserve is booming. Almost a billion people have been Inoculated.
Festive season is giving the cheers. Inflation is range bound. September retail inflation is at 5 months low at 4.35 percentage points. Industrial growth is high. Interest rates remain benign and RBI is playing the master stroke and maintaining a wonderful trade-off between growth and inflation. Core inflation remains at 5.9%. Food inflation in September is at 0.68%. Manufacturing, mining, capital goods and electricity, mostly core sector is positive too and is increasing in an ascending order. The lurking fear of a third wave is receding. Dis-investment is gathering steam. Reforms in banking such as creation of bad bank reminds us that financial sector reform is in full swing with many more in the pipe line. Ground realities are outrageously firm with strong rooting. The low interest rate and declining inflation is giving support to a strong recovery.
The finance secretary has stated that Indian economy is on a course of steady and sustainable growth path. The govt is supporting infrastructure with National Infrastructure pipeline that will generate employment which has remained the bane of Indian economy. By selling Air India the government is out of a debt trap and shall save in interest payment too. Our economy is growing quarter after quarter and in ascending order. The biggest boon for Indian economy is its market providing space for unlimited consumption. Coupled with that Government’s audacious decision to go ahead with capital expenditure will open up the floodgates of employment and opportunities. The monsoon was poor initially and towards the end it compensated by meeting the long term average rainfall in the month of September.
Everything of course depends on how India adjusts to the energy crisis and the fall-out of high crude oil price. The strength of India’s democratic dividend is powerful indeed with meridian age of 29 and a rising India will take this on its stride. We feel, finance ministers prediction is based on solid ground realities and let us help support that dream – so that the India’s growth trajectory continues unabated.
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