Covid-19 will subside by July 15, 2021: SRM University study

Vijayawada : A team of SRM University, Andhra Pradesh, conducted a study on the Coronavirus pandemic which revealed that the registering of new cases would fall below 100 per day by July 15, 2021.

Professor D Narayana Rao, Pro-Vice-Chancellor, SRM University–AP initiated the study. Dr Soumyajyoti Biswas of SRM University AP, along with four B.Tech Students have carried out an interesting study to predict the end time of COVID-19 spread in the state of Andhra Pradesh.

A release of SRM here on Wednesday said that the study employed the Susceptible – Infected – Recovered (SIR) model, making use of the information on the COVID-19 affected people and the recovered number of people, which the Government of AP makes available through the control command Center.

The SRM Team made use of this data, employed the SIR Model and applied the methods of Machine Learning. The study reveals that by July 15th 2021, the rate of infection in AP will be below 100 per day.

With the assumption that the decay rate of infection is the same as the growth rate, the model predicts that the number of infected people could be 10,000 (May 21), 15,000 (May 30), 1000 (June 14), 500 (June 23) and 100 (July 15). The above report has been submitted to the Special Chief Secretary to the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh.

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